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Climate – Warming

The UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) stipulates that all countries commit to avoid dangerous climate change, translated through the Paris climate agreement into keeping GMST (global mean surface temperature) well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C.  Our assessment of climate tipping elements and their tipping points suggests that danger may be approached even earlier.  The Earth may have left a safe climate state beyond 1°C global warming.  A significant likelihood of passing multiple climate tipping points exists above ~1.5°C, particularly in major ice sheets.  Tipping point likelihood increases further in the Paris range of 1.5 to <2°C warming.  Current policies leading to ~2 to 3°C warming are unsafe because they would likely trigger multiple climate tipping points.  Our updated assessment of climate tipping points provides strong scientific support for the Paris Agreement and associated efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C."

David I. Armstrong McKay, Arie Staal, Jesse F. Abrams, Ricarda Winkelmann, Boris Sakschewski, Sina Loriani, Ingo Fetzer, Sarah E. Cornell, Johan Rockström, Timothy M. Lenton